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Back in 2018, it took just a short phrase to energize a Labour conference demonstrating the party was falling out of love with its then leader. While not precisely stirring rhetoric, the phrase met with wild cheering as delegates stood for an impromptu ovation.

As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches having such an effect. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out staying in the EU". But context is everything.

During that deeply polarized period in 2018, departing from the prepared script like this was inevitably viewed as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in working-class seats above the Europhile sentiments within Labour. In just one speech, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he later succeeded.

The Evolution of Stance and Closed Issues

In the years since, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts upon assuming leadership in 2020 was declaring the EU question was resolved by the 2019 national vote. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” commitments that forbade rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in key seats, despite survey data suggests many of them have died or changed their minds.

Pressure Building on Europe

However, it’s now the prime minister’s turn to face the pressures of being a party leader. And, if EU relations is no longer the central crisis in UK politics, a lid which was tightly sealed for five years is starting to loosen once more.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up the rhetoric about the devastation that leaving the EU has inflicted on Britain's economic standing. This serves as an effective tool to criticize the Reform UK leader, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was his primary goal and is still his sole political accomplishment.

And yet, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has resulted in an economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, dwarfs the micro-mitigation so far offered by ministers. The PM's much-touted relationship reset agreed with Brussels in 2024 provides gains measured in low decimal points.

Cabinet Divergence & Bolder Ideas

The chancellor is among those trying to overcome entrenched Home Office resistance to an expansive version of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme allowing youths can move between Britain and Europe to study or work.

David Lammy has pondered publicly regarding the clear advantages of being in a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, recently voted for a Liberal Democrat motion on customs union membership.

While the Europe minister, who oversees UK-EU relations, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, insists the firm boundaries are still in place, there are ways these could be bypassed. One idea involves announce the start of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the following election platform, with implementation only if Labour won a fresh mandate.

Starmer's Deep-Seated Doubts

Yet, Starmer has lately been damping it all down on the idea cautioning that a return to an EU customs arrangement could undermine the trade pacts with the US, which he regards as key accomplishments of his premiership.

Reportedly that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.

1. First, he believes a customs pact is now much harder because his ministers actively diverging from EU regulations in numerous sectors, like environmental standards.
2. Second, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the subsequent collapse of negotiations has led British officials that former EU partners are less interested in cutting special deals to the UK than in demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
3. Lastly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by Moscow, is viewed by some influential figures in Number 10 as a reason for Britain to keep its distance from the EU.

An Alarming Document and Strategic Considerations

This strange and concerning American strategy paper claims Europe is threatened by “civilizational erasure” because of immigration. It contains a single mention of the UK, found on a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in British politics to encourage the growth of “patriotic” parties.

However, instead of concluding that this makes the US an undependable ally, ministers is worried that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by endangering fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Succession Chatter and The Ghost from the Past

This situation returns us to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not an attempt to become leader but simply an attempt to preserve the possibility of staying in the EU in a future vote. In fact, back then, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement of the kind he now appears to be opposing.

But it’s not been lost on Downing Street note that Wes Streeting, widely considered would stand for the leadership, is among a clutch of cabinet ministers signaling they desire greater ambition regarding the EU.

Aides to Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a contest for the top job, maintain she won’t discuss her stance on a customs union as it would merely “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Obvious Risk & A Wise Reminder

The risk is clear. If Starmer rules out significant moves towards a close relationship, he allows rivals to claim the territory where most of Labour MPs, members and voters are to be found.

It would be wise for Starmer to recall the effect that a short phrase had on his career seven years ago. There are options for a big offer on Europe that the prime minister should not “rule out”; he should prise them open himself, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.